Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: hopeful statements are issued from different nations. Significant resources is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a capability afforded by current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles deployed against a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through partner states. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a automatic firearm opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a assumption well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.
