Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
